Win probabilities for upcoming games — derived from live prediction-market prices, not from a pundit's gut.
Methodology — no black box. Each probability below is a live Polymarket price converted directly: a 62¢ contract = a 62% market-implied chance. We show the source market for every number. Markets move as money moves, so these update in real time. On NFL games and MLB postseason games you'll also see Kalshi's price under the Polymarket bars — a second real-money crowd, from a server-side snapshot (Kalshi's API blocks browser requests), with the gap between the two crowds flagged. This page makes no picks of its own.
Use these correctly. A market-implied probability is a starting point, not an answer. Your job is to disagree with it for a reason — an injury the market hasn't priced, a matchup edge, weather. Compare against sportsbook prices on the odds board: when the market and the books disagree, one of them is wrong.